Weekly NEPSE Market Update (Aug 10–14, 2026)

Executive Summary: The Nepal equity market ended last week roughly flat. The NEPSE index opened around 2,641 and closed the week at 2,643 (Fri), little changed from the prior Monday close of 2,641. Trading was muted: daily turnover averaged ~Rs 3.6–3.7 billion (NPR), about 18.4 Arba total for the week. Sector performance was mixed – microfinance and “Others” saw modest gains, while cyclical sectors like Trading underperformed. Major movers included Emerging Nepal Ltd (ENL), HidroElectricity Inv. & Dev. Co. (HIDCL) and NRN Infra, which rallied (~+3–5%), whereas several hydropower and microfinance scrips fell (e.g. ULHC down ~–15%). Macroeconomic drivers were benign: the rupee traded near ₨152.9/USD, short-term rates ~2–2.5%, and CPI inflation ~5% annual. Investor sentiment remained neutral (advance/decline breadth was 1.0 on Tuesday) with markets consolidating. In sum, the market paused after a rally; upside hinges on fresh triggers, while risks include profit-taking amid global volatility.

Market Performance

- Index Level: NEPSE was range-bound around 2,640–2,650. It opened Monday at 2,651.46 and closed 2,641.06 (–0.34%), then traded nearly flat mid-week (2,642.40 on Wed) before a slight uptick to 2,651.21 (+0.33%) on Thursday. However, profit-booking on Friday drove it back to 2,643.83 (–0.27%). In total the index ended +2 points on the week (≈+0.08%).

- Volume & Turnover: Daily turnover held near the 3–4 Arba range. For example, Monday saw Rs 3.60 Arba on 74.6 lakh shares, and Thursday about Rs 3.69 Arba. Total weekly turnover was roughly Rs 18–19 Arba (lower than prior weeks). This suggests moderate liquidity and no major swings in trading interest.

- Sector Trends: Sector indices were mixed. Microfinance and “Others” led modest gains (e.g. Microfinance +0.19% on Mon, Others +0.44% on Fri), while Trading stocks lagged (–0.86% on Mon, –2.57% on Fri). Among heavy sectors, Banking and Finance were essentially flat (+0.05% on Wed), Hydropower edged down (~–0.4% mid-week). In summary, defensive sectors showed small gains, while riskier cyclical segments faced profit-taking.

Chart: NEPSE index trend (past 5 trading days) and sector rotation. Market stalled near 2,650 with a slight pullback on Friday. Sectors like microfinance and “Others” outperformed, whereas Trading underperformed.

## Top Gainers & Losers

The week’s biggest stock moves were mostly narrow plays. Top gainers included mid-cap investment and tourism names: ENL (+5.48%), HIDCL (+4.95%), NRN (+3.85%) and Taragaon Regency Hotel (+3.76%). (These saw large percentage rises on low volumes.) Conversely, top decliners were dominated by small-caps and hydropower: ULHC –14.98%, Mahila LaghuBitta (MLBSL) –5.18%, Corp Dev Bank (CORBL) –4.74%, etc. The table below summarizes the 10 largest gainers and 10 largest losers (by % change) last week, with trading volumes and market capitalizations for context:

|---|---|---|---|

| ENL (Emerg. Nepal Ltd) | +5.48% | 1,388 | 4.58 B |

| HIDCL (Hidro Inv) | +4.95% | 163,995 | 63.82 B |

| NRN (NRN Infra Dev) | +3.85% | 224,771 | 24.99 B |

| TRH (Taragaon Regency Hotel) | +3.76% | 8,206 | 15.54 B |

| NIFRA (Nepal Infra Bank) | +3.44% | 83,476 | 54.43 B |

| ECL (Everest Colour Ltd) | +2.95% | 29,731 | 4.60 B |

| MFIL (Manjushree Fin.) | +2.89% | 27,501 | 10.31 B |

| CHDC (CEDB Holdings) | +2.85% | 18,189 | 23.15 B |

| GBLBS (Grameen Bikas) | +2.42% | 989 | 7.27 B |

| OHL (Oriental Hotels) | +2.12% | 2,724 | 7.92 B |

|---|---|---|---|

| ULHC (Upper Lohore HEP) | –14.98% | 45,339 | 1.74 B |

| MLBSL (Mahila LGB) | –5.18% | 7,755 | 2.78 B |

| CORBL (Corp Dev Bank) | –4.74% | 38,077 | 5.55 B |

| UHEWA (Upper Hewakhola) | –3.16% | 34,069 | 3.62 B |

| MLBBL (Mithila LGB) | –2.96% | 4,754 | 2.72 B |

| WNLB (Wean Nepal LGB) | –2.95% | 255 | 1.10 B |

| RSML (Reliance Spinning) | –2.89% | 23,929 | 48.56 B |

| BHPL (Barahi Hydro) | –2.81% | 1,640 | 1.22 B |

| FMDBL (First MicroFinance Deb.) | –2.71% | 35,577 | 11.16 B |

| SMB (Support Microfinance) | –2.62% | 146 | 2.45 B |

Table: Top 10 gainers vs losers (weekly). Market caps from latest filings or stock trackers.

## Sector Performance

Sector rotation was modest. The Investment sector saw some buying pressure – it contributed multiple top gainer stocks (ENL, HIDCL, NIFRA, CHDC) showing that investment companies outperformed. In contrast, hydropower and microfinance stocks were weak on aggregate, as indicated by multiple hydropower names (ULHC, UHEWA, BHPL) and microfinance (MLBSL, FMDBL, SMB) among the biggest decliners. One indicator of breadth: on Aug 12 the number of advancing stocks equaled decliners (20 up vs 20 down), so sector action was narrow. A sector-summary chart (below) would show only small percent moves: e.g., banking up ~+0.05% while hydropower ~–0.4% mid-week, and trading notably down for the week.

## Corporate Actions & Regulatory Updates

- Quarterly Results: Several firms published Q4 (FY2082/83) results. For example, Nepal Warehousing Company, Sayapatri Hydropower, Upper Syange HEP and Trade Tower all announced provisional Q4 statements this week. (No major surprises were reported.)

- Corporate Announcements: Kumari Capital scheduled its 8th AGM for Bhadra 24, 2083 (mid-August). Karnali Jalsrot reissued its rights-offer notice for new shares. These events may attract interest in small-cap financials and hydropower issues in coming weeks.

- Deposit Auctions: The central bank (NRB) held short-term liquidity operations: on Aug 12 it accepted bids for Rs 30 Arba of one-month deposits (and again Rs 20 Arba on Aug 14). These auctions (yielding around 1.43%) are part of routine monetary operations. They have kept interbank rates anchored at ~2.75%. No change to benchmark policy rates was announced in the week.

- Interest Rates: Several banks announced new deposit/loan rates effective Bhadra 1 (mid-August). For instance, Agricultural Dev. Bank, Citizens Bank, and Everest Bank published circulars on Aug 16 changing rates. These indicate banks’ efforts to adjust spreads, but have so far had no visible impact on equity flows.

## Macroeconomic & Sentiment Drivers

- FX and Inflation: The Nepali rupee remained near ₨152–153 per USD (NRB midrate ~152.99 sell), little changed from the prior week. Inflation is low by regional standards (NRB reports ~4.95% y/y CPI inflation). With inflation moderate and global commodity prices relatively stable, domestic policy is accommodative. Credit growth (C/D ratio ~71.4%) and steady short-term yields (~1.9–2.3% for 91–182 day T-bills) continue to support liquidity.

- Global Context: International equity markets were mixed last week, but no major global shock materialized (U.S. and Asian indices were largely flat). Lack of fresh bullish catalysts means Nepal’s market held recent gains but lacked momentum.

- Investor Sentiment: Technical indicators and breadth suggest caution. On Aug 12 the advance/decline ratio was only 1.00 (20 advancers vs 20 decliners), implying neutral sentiment. Key leadership stocks (banks, large caps) showed limited action, and fundamental sectors like consumer staples remain sensitive to macro news. In short, investors are adopting a “wait-and-see” stance until clearer trends emerge.

```mermaid

timeline

title Key Events (Aug 2026)

2026-08-12 : NRB holds 1M deposit auction (Rs 30 Arba)

2026-08-14 : Continued profit-booking; several Q4 reports (e.g. Warehousing, Sayapatri)

2026-08-16 : Banks (ADB, Citizens, Everest) announce new deposit/loan rates (effective Bhadra 1)

```

Timeline: Major NEPSE/corporate events last week.

## Analysis & Insights

The NEPSE index is at a technical pivot (roughly 2,640–2,660). A breakout above ~2,655 (last Thursday’s high) on strong volume would be needed to resume the mid-July rally toward prior peaks near 2,700. Absent that, a break below ~2,630 support could invite further selling (testing 2,600). Bullish scenario: If domestic consumption and remittance inflows remain robust, and no new shocks emerge, banks and consumer plays may find buyers. In this case, quality mid-caps (e.g. major hydropower IPOs) and financials could resume uptrends. Bearish scenario: On the flip side, any negative shock (e.g. global market correction, weakening remittance flows, or disappointing domestic data) could trigger profit-taking. In that case, defensive sectors (like NIBL, Nabil Bank, or large-cap hydros) may outperform, while riskier small-caps slide.

Actionable Recommendations: Retail investors should be selective. With the market range-bound, emphasize risk management: consider trimming position sizes, placing stop-losses near key supports (around 2,630 on NEPSE), and avoiding overconcentration in volatile scripts. Watch for catalysts: e.g. strong Q4 results or government policies that might shift liquidity. Ensure adequate cash buffers – if volatility rises, it can offer buying opportunities in fundamentally sound stocks. Given the neutral market tone, a conservative stance (e.g. dollar-cost-averaging, focusing on established large-caps) is prudent.

Conclusion: Last week’s NEPSE action was one of consolidation rather than clear direction. The market faces a “watch for clues” period. Continued caution is warranted: any rally attempt needs firm technical confirmation, while downside risk (global uncertainty or profit-taking) cannot be ignored. Retail investors should keep an eye on liquidity and sentiment indicators, manage stops, and focus on quality names. If bullish conviction is confirmed by strong turnover and positive news (e.g. healthy bank earnings), participation can be increased; otherwise, preserving capital and waiting on the sidelines may be wiser.

**Confidence Level:** Medium. The above analysis is based on reported data and market signals. The market’s near-flat behavior and equal advance/decline ratio suggest both upside and downside risks are balanced, hence confidence is not high. Further developments (economic data, fund flows) will provide clearer direction.